Data study · 2021–22 to 2025–26

What the transfer portal actually did to college basketball recruiting

Among players on a college roster in two straight seasons, the share who changed school went from 11.6% in 2021–22 to 23.7% in 2025–26 — roughly a doubling. But the portal is not a ladder: 75.4% of those moves were between programs at the same level, 15.2% went DOWN one, and only 9.4% went up.

Computed from 74,740 player-seasons · 2021–22 to 2025–26 · updated Aug 31, 2026

Movement roughly doubled.

Of players on a college roster in two straight seasons, 11.6% were at a different school in 2021–22. By 2025–26 it was 23.7% — 2,093 players out of 8,828.

Most moves are sideways, and more go down than up.

Of 2,093 moves in 2025–26, 75.4% were between programs at the same level. 15.2% dropped a level and 9.4% climbed one — about three down for every two up.

Most new roster spots still do not go to transfers.

In 2025–26, 22.1% of players new to a program came from another college — up from 15.5% in 2021–22, but still fewer than one place in four.

Share of returning players who changed school

Players on a college roster in two consecutive seasons · the share at a different school the second year

Season arrived

2211.6%
2313.4%
2414.8%
2519.3%
2623.7%

n = 8,828 returning players in 2025–26

Bars are scaled to the highest season so the trend is visible; the counts behind every one are in the table below.

Movement between consecutive seasons · 2021–22 to 2025–26

SeasonReturning playersChanged schoolShareNew arrivalsFrom another college
2021–228,8001,02511.6%6,60515.5%
2022–238,6301,15613.4%6,68917.3%
2023–248,8101,30714.8%7,19718.2%
2024–259,3711,80419.3%7,71523.4%
2025–268,8282,09323.7%9,48022.1%

Where the movers went, by level · 2021–22 to 2025–26

SeasonMoves with a known levelUp a levelSame levelDown a level
2021–221,0255.6%77.2%17.3%
2022–231,1568.0%74.8%17.1%
2023–241,3077.7%76.4%15.9%
2024–251,8049.2%75.2%15.6%
2025–262,0939.4%75.4%15.2%

What this means if you're being recruited

The fear a family brings to this is that the portal has closed the door on high-school players. Our rosters do not show that. In 2025–26, 77.9% of players arriving at a program were not at another college the year before — the large majority of new places still go to someone who is not a transfer. What changed is churn among players already in college, and that has roughly doubled.

The more useful thing on this page is the direction. A transfer is talked about as a step up, and for 9.4% of moves it is. 75.4% are lateral and 15.2% go down a level. If you are choosing between an offer at your level now and the hope of transferring up later, the data says the second path is the rarer one.

It also means roster spots open later than they used to. A programme losing 23.7% of its returning players every year is a programme recruiting later in the cycle — which cuts both ways for a high-school player who is not being recruited early.

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Methodology

Source · sample · scope

74,740 player-seasons · 1,060 programs · 2021–22 to 2025–26

Definitions and scope
Source
Official rosters published by the athletics sites of 1,060 NCAA D1, D2 and D3 men's programs, 2021–22 through 2025–26, collected by Depth Chart.
What counts as a move
A player on a college roster in two consecutive seasons, at a different college the second year. Derived from the rosters themselves, never from a roster's own 'transfer' label — that field has no unknown state and undercounts older seasons, which would manufacture exactly the trend this page reports.
Why returning players
Our roster coverage grows each year, so any share whose denominator is 'everyone on a roster' moves with our collection as well as with the sport. Counting only players seen in both seasons keeps the denominator flat, so the trend cannot be an artefact of finding more players.
Levels
Up and down mean between NCAA divisions — D3 to D2 to D1. A move between two programs in the same division counts as the same level however different the two programs are.
Not counted
Junior college, NAIA and overseas programs are outside our roster set, so a player moving to or from one is not a move here — he leaves or arrives as somebody new. 98 player-seasons listing two colleges at once are excluded rather than assigned to one.
Sample
74,740 player-seasons across the 5 seasons reported. The 2020–21 rosters are read as well, to know where players were before the first season on this page, but they are not counted here.
Computed
August 31, 2026 · methodology 2026-08-28.1
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